Grudge matches, as this one most certainly is, can throw up surprising results. Given the nature of a big tournament like Euro 2008, which has already supplied a few shocks, it looks very risky backing Germany at just 7/20 (0.35/1) to beat Austria.
However, that doesn’t mean that Austria or the draw should be backed either. A look at the facts suggests that they have very little chance of taking anything from this match.
Germany were excellent in their first match against Poland, so why they were off key against Croatia is a bit of a mystery. It’s possible that they were over-confident after seeing Croatia’s stuttering start against Austria.
However, now that they must win to ensure their progress to the quarter-finals, they will almost certainly be taking this match very seriously.
Unfortunately for Austria, that probably means the end of the road for them at Euro 2008. They fought brilliantly to stay in the tournament by snatching a late equaliser against Poland, but Germany are in a different class to Poland, so should be too strong for them.
Germany are ranked 87 places higher than Austria, who are at 92, and have won all four of their last matches against them. Most recently, Germany won 3-0 in February this year. The other three most recent results are 3-1, 6-2 and 5-1 to Germany, giving an indication of how Germany have dominated this contest since 1994.
Austria’s most recent win was 5-0 in September 1931.
Supporting the case for a German win is that Austria just can’t seem to score goals. Even though they split the Polish defence four or five times in the first quarter of their previous match, they had to wait until injury time for a controversial penalty to score.
If Austria are unable to score in open play against Poland, they don’t seem to have much chance against a side as good as Germany.
However, that doesn’t mean Germany are likely to wipe the floor with Austria. A match between these two countries is tense at the best of times. In this situation it should be even tighter than usual, so Austria may well keep the score respectable.
Prediction: Austria 0-2 Germany
Match odds 7/10 Germany 4/1 Draw 11/1 Austria
BETTING VERDICT Very small bet on Austria at 11/1. Very small bet on the draw at 4/1. Small bet Under 2.5 Goals at 1/1.
For all the evidence pointing against Austria there is good value in taking some very small bets on them at these odds to frustrate Germany tonight. No bet if the odds offered are any shorter than the ones shown here.
There is just no value in backing Germany in this situation. The return is too small to justify a bet after some of the surprise results so far at Euro 2008.
There is also some value in the Under 2.5 Goals market. Many expect Germany to come out firing and blast goals past Austria at will, and that is why the Over 2.5 Goals market is priced at 8/10 with Bettingworld and Betxchange.
However, as a derby match this one could be a tense affair. Also Austria have shown themselves to be no pushovers. Together these factors suggest that Germany may well find the going a little heavy. It looks like there is decent value in the Under 2.5 Goals market at 1/1.
This article was first published on sports betting news site Sportingweb (www.sportingweb.co.za).
Listen to Sportingweb’s Saturday morning radio show for a betting update on Euro 2008 and all the weekend’s sport. The show starts at 07:30 and runs to 08:00 on 1485AM Radio Today, which is also available on channel 169 of the DSTV audio bouquet!