How Bafana Bafana can reach Round of 16
How Bafana can reach Round of 16
Posted: 2010-06-18 08:36
If South Africa beat France next week, then they can still qualify for the knockout phase of the World Cup on goal difference if either Mexico or Uruguay lose (if the two group leaders draw, then forget); but, both of these sides have a far superior goal difference to Bafana Bafana.
Here are the permutations:
If South Africa win 1-0; then Uruguay must beat Mexico by FIVE goals, or Mexico must beat Uruguay by SIX;
If South Africa win 2-0; then Uruguay must beat Mexico by FOUR goals, or Mexico must beat Uruguay by FIVE;
If South Africa win 3-0; then Uruguay must beat Mexico by THREE goals, or Mexico must beat Uruguay by FOUR; and so on…
If Uruguay beat Mexico 1-0; then Bafana must beat France by FOUR goals;
If Mexico beat Uruguay 1-0; then Bafana must beat France by FIVE goals;
If Uruguay beat Mexico 2-0; then Bafana must beat France by THREE goals (equal goal difference, more goals scored);
If Mexico beat Uruguay 2-0; then Bafana must beat France by FOUR goals; and so on…
Here is where it gets particularly interesting:
If South Africa win 2-1; and Uruguay beat Mexico 4-0, then Bafana Bafana and El Tri have finished tie, with an identical goals for and against record, and level on head to head.
Similarly, of Bafana beat France 2-0 and Uruguay beat Mexico 3-0, then Bafana and the Mexicans will be absolutely level again.
So what happens then?
Wait for it folks: Lots will be drawn. Can Bafana ever get that lucky?
Here’s the Fifa rule on this:
The ranking of each team in each group will be determined as follows:
a) greatest number of points obtained in all group matches;
b) goal difference in all group matches;
c) greatest number of goals scored in all group matches.
If two or more teams are equal on the basis of the above three criteria, their
rankings will be determined as follows:
d) greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the
teams concerned;
e) goal difference resulting from the group matches between the teams
concerned;
f) greater number of goals scored in all group matches between the teams
concerned;
g) drawing of lots by the Fifa Organising Committee.
Richard Maguire



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